Monday, October 17, 2005

Predictions

Henry posted this list of probable winners of the Nobel Prize in economics:
Barro, Bernheim, Card, Doug Diamond, Peter Diamond, Dixit, Fama, Feldstein, French, Goldin, Gene Grossman, Sandy Grossman, Hall, Lars Hansen, Hart, Helpman, Holmstrom, Jorgenson, Kreps, Krugman, Milgrom, Mortenson, Murphy, Myerson, Newey, Obsfeldt, Pakes, Phelps, Pissarides, Posner, Rabin, Rajan, Rogoff, Paul Romer, Sargent, Shleifer, Sutton, Thaler, Tirole, Williamson, Wilson.
Note the significant omissions: the actual winners, Aumann and Schelling. Given how seemingly comprehensive this list is, this is surprising and shows just how hard prediction is -- and how unexpected this prize was. See also this list by Matthew Kahn, which omits the actual winners as well. Did betting markets do any better?

1 Comments:

Blogger henry said...

I couldn't find any prediction markets in the run-up to the prize announcement. Nobelpreis Bourse was not running this year and Tradesports didn't have anything either.

7:33 AM  

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