Thursday, September 15, 2005


Like others, I just finished reading Fooled By Randomness. Taleb argues that when we talk about risk and uncertainty we forget the Knightian distinction that uncertainty is unquantifiable and fundamentally unknowable, and we should remember that. Or else! This means that it is impossible to get an accurate, or sensical, prediction of the future. He's direct and entertaining. Not sure how much I learned, for since taking probability in high school I've been convinced of the value of conditional and probabilistic thinking, but it was still fun.


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