Tuesday, July 19, 2005

It's Roberts!

The New York Times gets the low-down on confirmation chances:
If recent history is a guide, the nominee will be questioned extensively about his views on divisive social issues, especially abortion. Republicans have a 10-to-8 advantage on the Judiciary Committee, and they have 55 seats in the Senate, so chances for confirmation would appear to be good - unless the nominee's views arouse enough opposition to inspire a Democratic filibuster.
All the news that's fit to print.

Also, tradesports.com failed horribly. It had all sorts of candidates jumping around today as rumors flew. At one point Edith Clement was all the way up at 88. In this sense, it worked, synthesizing available information. But it did not predict well: Roberts had never been above 10 and was below 1 at the time of the announcement, after which Roberts' price skyrocketed. This just goes to show the silliness of these futures markets when information is largely private. They work as an expensive Bayesian calculator but that's about it.

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