Monday, November 08, 2004

Values? Nope.

Kevin Drum to some extent confirms what I wrote below, but with numbers (instead of my shameless sophistry and illusion.) He writes:
22% of voters said "moral values" was their most important issue. Among these voters, 80% voted for Bush, while in 2000 voters who said "moral leadership" was a higher priority than managing government gave him 70% of their votes. Although this suggests that Bush made some inroads with this group, the 2000/2004 questions aren't really comparable enough to draw a conclusion.
Overall, despite the hype, the data seems to indicate that conservative moral value voters didn't have any more impact this year than any other year. In fact, if anything, maybe slightly less.
But strangely,
18% of voters cited the economy as their most important issue, and 80% of them voted for Kerry. So that means the economy was a net negative for Bush, right?

Not so fast. Check this out: more people think the economy is doing well today than thought so in 2000. And among people who think the economy is in good shape, a stunning 87% voted for Bush. Among that same group in 2000, only 48% voted for the "incumbent," Al Gore. Bush apparently has done a great job of persuading people who think the economy is doing well that his policies were responsible.

Need more evidence? Among voters who say their family financial situation is better than before, 80% voted for Bush. In 2000, Gore won only 61% of their vote.

What makes this all the more remarkable is that only 32% of voters said their financial situation was better than before. In 2000, 50% of voters said that. So even though fewer people personally think they're doing better this year than thought so in 2000, more of them think the economy is in better shape. Go figure. And virtually all of those people voted for Bush.

This certainly lends a great deal of creedence to the "Bush voters are ignorant" point of view.


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