Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Speculation

What I wanted to say in my last post in reference to the Abadie article was something to do with political convenience of the dishonesty of citing "transition" as a cause of terrorism rather than simply saying that we could investigate whether this relationship holds. A glance at the abstract would leave you with the impression that he had developed a model which showed that the transition was the proximate cause of terrorism, or that he at least had data to support it. Instead, it was simply unsupported speculation, probably accurate -- it makes sense that a transition would cause terrorism, for terrorism probably has something to do with instability -- but still just speculation, and, hell, I can speculate. But I wouldn't foreground it in an academic paper.

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